However these unemployment lower rate of 4

And it is distributed. Public authorities and social partners are actively preparing retreats 2010 appointment for which Nicolas Sarkozy requested that "everything is on the table." The schedule and the starting positions are known and each sharpens its arguments, while the orientation of the pensions Board (COR) prepares the material intended to inform the debate. The objective is, as in the usual, to identify the actions a consensual minimum. What's more reassuring to see social partners and public authorities working together on this subject rightly concerned the French However, on closer inspection, this process is far from transparent and seamless.

Indeed, for pensions, everything is negotiated, starting with what we can say or not say. Not question of striking unions or worry unnecessarily about the French. Simulations prepared for the Board of pensions are no exception to the rule. Two scenarios will be built, with a hypothesis of unemployment at 4.5 per cent in 2024 and one less optimistic, retain unemployment to 7 in 2022. However these unemployment, lower rate of 4.5 and 2 to the currently measured unemployment, have never achieved for decades. He must go back to 1978 to see unemployment at 4.5 and 1982 for unemployment to 7. Projections intended to inform the debate are therefore based on a bet, that a decline in significant unemployment. This same bet had been made in the last fiscal year of simulation in 2007, which explains how a significant level of deficit expected for 2020 will already be reached this year.

Officially, there is not what worry. 2007 Simulation exercise would be shown wrong because of the crisis, by unpredictable nature. Once the latter is surmounted, everything should return to the order. Unemployment is expected to decline, especially because of the decrease of the active population of working age. Yet, it is not sure that the future is so bright. In the same way that it is not enough to reduce working hours to reduce unemployment, it is possible that aging is accompanied by less important growth and persistence of unemployment at high levels, which will not simplify the balance of the old-age insurance.

It is feared that the public authorities prepare, once more, to make decisions a minimum. In recent years, there has been a drift of the retreats of the private sector, the national old-age insurance fund more resembling the public pension system. Operating on a basis of distribution since its creation, it should confine itself to distribute pensions to retirees in the limit of the dues levied on assets. Given the demographic context, common sense should even lead it to distribute fewer benefits than the contributions received, to constitute reservations, the image of what has been done by the Agirc and Arrco the, and in a number of foreign distribution schemes, such as the North American Oasdi. Or the CNAV, become deficit since 2005 and for which the horizon back to equilibrium is not known, distributes now structurally more benefits than what it cash. In doing so, she departed from the logic of distribution where it was to be closer to the mode of operation of the pensions of officials, largely funded through tax and debt. This drift is alarming. As exposes it the Court of Auditors in its last report, the use of deficit and debt in fact "undue burden" on the assets of future generations.

To break this spiral, it should be a minimum to ensure the balance sheet of the distribution and help the French to be a supplementary pension. The best solution for an annual balance of accounts, or failing to ensure that any slippages are quickly offset by savings, is likely to vary the apportionment by opting for a functioning points or notional accounts. These methods allow indeed to make evolve the attribution of rights over water rules, without conditioning the adjustments to the emergence of a political consensus and legislative revisions. This evolution is all the more important that the current crisis makes illusory any balancing of accounts via an increase in social security contributions. The latter, already at a very high level, could be increased without degrade much more activity and therefore social accounts. In return, should of course enable the French to cope with the trend decrease in replacement rates related to the distribution by sparing more. It is a particularly important issue that public transfers represent France 85 of people over 65 years, or a record revenues in OECD countries, averaging to 61.