Are you surprised by the outcome of the vote of the activists who placed Martine Aubry at the head with a few tens of votes
I do not expect such a result. I have reached the conclusion that the Socialist Party no longer works as before: the voice reports have not played as it was expected. It underestimated the will of renewal. Two legitimacies compete today: Martine Aubry, based on the arithmetic, with 0.2 points in advance, and Ségolène Royal, from 29 of the votes in support of its motion on 6 November at almost 50 of the votes of activists last weekend. This extraordinary dynamics is the result of the legitimacy that it has in the eyes of activists, to embody the renewal.
Therefore, there is no winner
In a certain way, Martine Aubry has lost. It will be very difficult to find an authority. Ségolène Royal, who plays well the victims will have the support of the view. Above all, it can say that the old party by dishonest means, prevented the renewal of the PS.
More than different political lines, is not rather two cultures who oppose
The outcome of weekend elections reflects two competing visions of the PS, who lives a crisis of identity. Behind Martine Aubry, there are personalities who feel that the PS must remain anchored to the left party of activists. Ségolène Royal was pragmatic. As once François Mitterrand, it wants to transform the PS that he again won the elections. This is why she wants a party with true leadership, an expansion of the activist base and the ability to form alliances since essentially it is the victory.
The party branch, as defined as accepting that real activists, a classic vision of alliances to the left and that the decision to return to activists and non-media and polls, the party died on the night of Friday to Saturday.
Is the party ungovernable
I do not think. Unlike Ségolène Royal, if Martine Aubry is elected, it will of a majority in the organs of management that are the national Council and the national Office, whose composition reflects the relationship between motions. But will it always be in front of it Ségolène Royal in the media. The iron arm part begins... The air became unbreathable. They came out of the terrible night of Friday to Saturday with renewed hatred. Two antagonistic blocks of equal force to face.
Moreover, in his speech Saturday night, Martine Aubry was not evidence of an extraordinary opening. She could have said that, since the results give both candidates little or roughly 50, it was possible to lead a whole.
Is reconciliation possible
The "ségolénistes" do not want to hear from the meeting of the national Council and threaten to the courts. The evolution of the party will much depend on Ségolène Royal. I do not think that the new leadership will accept a new vote as requested. So far go Ségolène Royal She wants justice looks at the vote in each Federation I think that there are two possibilities: the failure, but it is very risky, or do not participate in this direction it considers dishonest and see if the opinion continues to follow. In which case, it will continue to do what it does: be both in and out of the party to exert pressure on the new management team.
In any case, a reconciliation seems impossible. The party is permanently weakened and may worsen. Nobody wants a split, but, in serious crises, there a moment where the process at work cannot be stopped, things escape us and can succeed despite itself to the split as can no longer get out of the crisis together.