To inform the participants of the Medef summer school, which opened yesterday, Laurence Parisot launched the debates by a review of the international situation in a few major figures of the "business community" Telepresence World: John Chambers, Cisco boss, Hari Bhartia, President of Indian management or Wan Yan, Chinese pattern of the largest Portal Internet of General information. "None of them sees scenario type"W"(a rebound followed of a second recession, Editor's note), some were even quite optimistic", concluded the President of the employers ' organisation.
The French scale, the HEC campus, which runs until Friday the summer University, was also a kind of sample - representative but nonetheless significant - for the French economy. Because if the large patterns poster, participants are more often patterns of SMEs - and often labour representatives in the regions. Dealer trucks to marne-la - Vallée, Jean-Pierre Chol has lost almost 20 million euros of turnover - to 50 - during the crisis. "But do not despair, it's going to come back." Came to sell stocks that were accumulated with cancellations of orders. "Transport companies have disappeared, either it is now necessary that they renew their trucks", he said.
Sector "recession proof".
"The summer was not so deadly, banks generally play the game, which is however not yet always the case of credit insurance," observed Thomas Chaudron, former President of the Centre of youth leaders and specialized in the walls of offices. He bought a business last year and another in the spring. "There is a lot of shots in real estate offices, including with firms who leave Paris", he said. And failure to preserve the margins, the worst was avoided: Thomas Chaudron took advantage of lower prices on aluminum, when the dealer Jean-Pierre Chol refocused on more value added services.
Other sectors have simply been "recession proof" (resistant to the crisis) and address the less fragile re-entry, observed its side Geoffroy Roux de Bézieux, patron of Virgin Mobile. "Telecom suffered its first recession since this sector has become a mass market." And we see that it became a market of first necessity: the French did not reduce their consumption. "Leader of a training company, Stéphanie Ortis has also limited case insensitive"because we are a funded market"(by 1 training). Ditto for Etienne Bernard, manufacturer of electric servo-motors and also President of the Group of metal industries for the Paris region. "We are a protected area because working for nuclear and oil." And we feel that upturn on solid. ""It even us for fifteen days with the "double dip" (W), it won't happen,"also defends François David, President of the credit insurer Coface. "Our default curves are improving and we expect a growth of 3.7 this year, barely less than the average 2003-2007"
"Prognosis difficult" employment
Uncertainty for the coming months, however, is in all minds. The crisis on sovereign debt in the spring was "losing time", observes the heavy weight dealer: "trucks, it is investment and investing when visibility." "What dominates this re-entry, it is the lack of visibility." "We feel that the essence of the social plans is behind us, but venture a prognosis on the job is difficult," continues Geoffroy Roux de Bézieux, also President of Unedic. "It remains in a very uncertain environment." "The main challenge for SMEs is now the lack of cash, which makes it difficult investment", observed its side Jean-François Pilliard, delegate general the UIMM (metallurgy).