And their shareholders can hardly expect a rebound this year

E.on and RWE, formerly stars instead of Frankfurt, were two red lanterns of the DAX in 2010. The two neighbours of Düsseldorf and Essen have lost about one-fifth of their market capitalization in a year. And their shareholders can hardly expect a rebound this year. Twelve years after liberalization which appeared originally, daring, but in fact delivered a comfortable oligopoly between E.ON, RWE and Vattenfall, EnBW, the winds are now - permanently - contrary.

There is first the excess supply in the European market of gas, including liquefied form. It lowered prices "spot" of natural gas, while the great of the energy supply, at rates higher, with the Russian Gazprom, in which they are bound by long-term contracts. For E.ON, which offered Ruhrgas in 2003, against the advice of the office of cartels and with the support of the Schröder Government, to the chagrin of the European Commission, this should translate into 2011, by losses at the level of its gas business.

Then there is the reform of the European emission trading system. It provides that, from 2013, quotas, in the electricity sector, must all be purchased. A serious puncture for the sector - talking of billions of euros. The addition should be particularly salty for RWE, which has the largest fleet of coal in the country.

Must be added to this nuclear fuel tax. The new energy concept adopted by the Government in September rose, a first time for a victory of the energy lobby. Of course, operators received a lengthening of the life of 17 German nuclear reactors, for twelve years on average. A real bonanza. But, for an opinion still largely hostile to the atom, the Government will take, in return, EUR 2.3 billion per year until 2016. In addition, a sword of Damocles juridico-political weighs on the new nuclear agreement. Länder ruled by the opposition think to an action before the Constitutional Court of Karlsruhe, arguing that the Bundesrat, the upper House of Parliament representing the Federal States, should have voice. Moreover, what happens if the opposition manages to win power in 2013, which seems not at all fanciful, to read the latest polls There is a fort in betting that a new left-wing coalition would return to the "output from the output of the atom", as we say in German.

Another puzzle for majors States: the growing opposition of the population to the new energy infrastructure. The new E coal plant.There, in Datteln, near the Dutch border, provides a dramatic example. Following a decision of justice of 2009, the site is partially frozen, on the grounds that the authorisation procedure has not taken sufficiently into account the protection of nature and that of the population. E.on, which repeat forever that the new plant will be one of the more "clean" in Europe, hopes to resolve the legal imbroglio in the coming months and to connect the new unit to the network in 2012. But the Group should not underestimate the perseverance of opponents still more determined to put a spoke in the wheels of operators become unpopular.

Citizen initiatives are not only plants, but also the experiments of carbon sequestration, as could see Vattenfall on its site of Jänschwalde in Brandenburg. "We do not want become the dustbin to CO2 the Germany!", chant the opponents. The news lines high voltage, which will be necessary to route the current produced by the turbines of the North Sea and Baltic Sea to the South of the country, where it is consumed, also raise controversies. Concerned residents often claim their burial, which costs on average EUR 4.2 million per kilometre, when their simple suspension in the air back to EUR 1.8 million per kilometre. The multiplicity of legal proceedings costs to large energy groups much time, energy and money. Neologisms have appeared, such as "the locked Republic" or "The Republic always against" to designate - in the lamenting - "Zeitgeist".

Finally, to top it all, the sector Giants face a massive movement of "recommunalisation" of the sector. The municipalities, which had mass transferred their networks of electricity, gas or water, late 1990s or early 2000s, at least in part, seeing a way to replenish their funds, want now to regain control. Bad news for the major players in the sector who, through their participation in the authorities, could prevent or interfere with the arrival of the competition. In December, six authorities in the Northwest of the country have even bought 51 of Steag, conglomerate Evonik, outgoing energy industry and the only role of distributor to become producer of electricity - the fifth of the country. "The concentration on the market of production decreases and it is thus", commented Justus Haucap, the President of the Commission of the monopolies. In a situation specific-l' expiry next a Pact of shareholders, EnBW has meanwhile found practically nationalized, from one day to the next day, when the Land Baden-Württemberg regained the 45 of EDF's capital. Stuttgart has promised to introduce its titles in stock, futures, but in the meantime, the transaction is passed for a return to the policy in the sector. In this context, for the less hostile, sector specialists look forward the strategic response of the big four.