to today's date planned for mid2010 and beyond

When a bomb explodes, the Flash of the explosion spread faster than sound. "The Flash occurred in September, but the noise is not yet come to Seattle and Toulouse", estimated in March last Steven Udvar Hazy, the highly influential patron of the CFLI aircraft rental, to condemn the lack of Boeing and Airbus reaction to the crisis. A month later, the difference in appreciation between most of the players in the sector and the two aircraft manufacturers remains considerable.

Airbus and Boeing say always able to deliver as many devices in 2009 and 2010 2008, or approximately 480 aircraft each. And if the two aircraft manufacturers announce a reduction in the production of aircraft from 5 to 10 in 2010, most analysts and industry players judge inevitable a decrease in the production of the order of 20 to 30. In a recent study, UBS Securities provides even up to 40 decline for Boeing 737, the American bestseller, always made at the unchanged rate of 31 aircraft per month.

In the heart of this dispute: divergent estimates of the gap between funding needs related to the controls of aircraft, estimated at $ 70 billion, and the funds available. While analysts encrypt the "gap" between 10 and 30 billion dollars, the two aircraft manufacturers consider 4 or 5 billion. Either an amount likely to be covered by injections of public funds into the banking system such as the France and financial assistance for Airbus and Boeing for their best customers.

For the time being, the results of the first quarter appear to move in the direction of aircraft manufacturers. Deliveries are comparable to those of previous years: 116 for Airbus (compared to 123 in the first quarter of 2008), and 121 (against 115) for its American competitor.

Collapse of orders

In addition, cancellations are still very limited: 14 for Airbus (including 12 in January) and 32 for Boeing (including 31 in January). The companies, who usually already paid half the price of the aircraft before its delivery, have in fact no interest to cancel.

However, the commands have collapsed, with only 22 new contracts for Airbus and Boeing 36, respectively against 395 and 288 standing on the first quarter of 2008.

But the greatest concern is the submerged part of the iceberg: the reports of orders, not disclosed in the monthly balance sheets, but which seem to become widespread. Nothing that for the last week, Qantas, China Southern and Cathay and announced their intention to delay some 93 devices, essentially long the haul, including 9 A380, deliverables in 2010. On the other hand, Safran equipment manufacturer announced 118 cancellations of orders for engines CFM-56 in the first quarter, or the equivalent of 59 Boeing 737 and Airbus A320, which appear not in releases of aircraft manufacturers.

"It is a movement of bottom;" all airlines are trying to push their deliveries, says Bertrand Grabowski, specialist aircraft in DVB Bank financing. Same thing with the hirers who do more manage to place all their aircraft. We believe that this movement will continue at least until mid-2010, leading to a drop in production from 15 to 20 over the next two years.

A cash flow problem

In the heart of the problem, the difficulties of financing that persist, but declining traffic and traffic in business particularly, who did most of the companies diving in the red and requires them to focus on the preservation of cash. Where these orders often reports very remote in time. To be acceptable by aircraft manufacturers, they should indeed be aircraft whose manufacture is not engaged. I.e., to today's date, planned for mid-2010 and beyond. It is therefore not for companies to adapt their offer to the current decline in traffic, but save the payment of instalments which punctuate the production aircraft.

But, at the time, the speech from aircraft manufacturers, that it would inject billions into the banking circuit in support of aircraft sales, exceeded, since even the richest companies, who have access to credit as Air France-KLM or Emirates, are negotiating with reports. The central problem became that of cash, in which Boeing and Airbus appear to be disarmed.

"For that airline companies regain confidence, be that business traffic stops to drop, the price of oil stabilized and their margins to replenish", points out Bertrand Grabowski. However, according to the latest data provided by the international air transport Association, this business traffic was still down 16.7 in January and 21.1 per cent in February.